北京時間周四(2月1日)凌晨03:00,美聯(lián)儲宣布維持利率在1.25%-1.5%不變,一如市場預期。這是美聯(lián)儲2018年的第一次利率決議,也是美聯(lián)儲主席耶倫主持召開的最后一次FOMC會議。
同去年12月的議息會議相比,本次會議聲明有哪些變化?以下是兩者的中英文對比:
聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)自12月(刪除:11月)會議以來獲得的信息顯示,就業(yè)市場繼續(xù)增強,經(jīng)濟活動一直在以穩(wěn)健的步幅增長。(增加:就業(yè)、家庭支出和企業(yè)固定投資穩(wěn)步增長,失業(yè)率維持在低位)(刪除:失業(yè)率進一步下滑,企業(yè)固定投資在近幾季已經(jīng)增加。)今年整體通脹和不計入食品和能源價格的通脹指標較上年同期下降,(刪除:一直在2%以下)(增加:繼續(xù)低于2%)。總的來說,基于市場的通脹補償指標(增加:有所上漲但)仍偏低,基于調(diào)查的較長期通脹預期指標變動不大。
委員會將依照法定的目標,尋求促進就業(yè)最大化和物價穩(wěn)定。委員會仍預計,隨著貨幣政策立場的(增加:進一步)逐步調(diào)整,經(jīng)濟活動將適度擴張,就業(yè)市場狀況(增加:已經(jīng)有所加強)(刪除:將在一定程度上進一步增強)。預計年通脹率將在(增加:在今年上升)(刪除:短期內(nèi)保持在低于2%的水準),但中期在委員會2%的目標附近穩(wěn)定下來。經(jīng)濟前景的短期風險看來大致均衡,但委員會正密切關(guān)注通脹發(fā)展。
鑒于已實現(xiàn)的和預期的就業(yè)市場狀況和通脹情況,委員會決定將聯(lián)邦基金利率目標區(qū)間(增加:維持在1.25%-1.5%)(刪除:提高到1.25%-1.5%)。貨幣政策立場保持寬松,因此會支持強勁的就業(yè)市場狀況,并帶動通脹持續(xù)向2%回升。
在決定未來調(diào)整聯(lián)邦基金利率目標區(qū)間的時機和規(guī)模時,委員會將評估與就業(yè)最大化以及2%通脹目標相關(guān)的已實現(xiàn)和預期的經(jīng)濟活動狀況。評估將考量廣泛的信息,包括就業(yè)市場數(shù)據(jù)、通脹壓力和通脹預期指標,以及反應(yīng)金融市場和國際情勢發(fā)展的指標。委員會將密切監(jiān)控向?qū)ΨQ的通脹目標取得的實際和預期的通脹發(fā)展。委員會預計,經(jīng)濟未來的發(fā)展將為(增加:進一步)循序漸進地上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率提供理據(jù);聯(lián)邦基金利率可能在一段時間內(nèi)會維持在預計在較長期內(nèi)保持的水準之下。不過,聯(lián)邦基金利率實際路徑將取決于未來數(shù)據(jù)展現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟前景。
FOMC貨幣政策會議中投票贊成者包括:FOMC委員會主席(美聯(lián)儲主席)耶倫(Janet L. Yellen, Chairman);委員會副主席(紐約聯(lián)儲主席)杜德利( William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman);(增加:(里士滿聯(lián)儲主席)Thomas I. Barkin;(亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲主席)Raphael W. Bostic;)(美聯(lián)儲理事)Lael Brainard;(刪除:(費城聯(lián)儲主席)Patrick Harker;(達拉斯聯(lián)儲主席)Robert S. Kaplan)、(克利夫蘭聯(lián)儲主席)Loretta J Mester;(美聯(lián)儲理事)Jerome H. Powell;(美聯(lián)儲副主席)Randal K. Quarles和John C. Williams。)
(刪除:投反對票的包括:(芝加哥聯(lián)儲主席)Charles L. Evans;(明尼阿波利斯聯(lián)儲主席)Neel Kashkari,他們在會議上傾向于維持聯(lián)邦基金利率不變。)
以下為英文全文:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Gains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12 month basis is expected to move up this year and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/4 to 1 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams.
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